Black Swan

What is the bond between the ballet role of Odile and a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was?

Of course, it`s the name - Black Swan.

Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake was composed in 1875 after he received a commission by Vladimir Petrovich Begichev, the intendant of Moscow's Russian Imperial Theatres. The ballet's content is based on a Russian folktale, and over the course of two acts, tells the story of a princess turned into a swan.

Swan Lake is known for its demanding technical skills all because of one extremely gifted ballerina, Pierina Legnani. She performed with such grace and discipline, the bar was quickly set in the minds of all who saw her. It's no surprise that every ballerina to dance the part of Odette/Odile after Legnani was judged against her performance. Legnani performed 32 fouettes (a fast whipping turn on one foot) in a row – a move many ballerinas loath because of its extreme difficulty. However, the magnitude of skill required to dance the part of Odette/Odile is why the ballet remains a favorite for many girls; its a goal, an aspiration to take center stage. The prestige that comes with performing Swan Lake flawlessly is invaluable, and can turn ballerinas into stars overnight.

"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" is a book by the essayist, scholar, philosopher, and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was released on April 17, 2007. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events and humans' tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. This theory has since become known as the black swan theory.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

"BEFORE THE DISCOVERY OF AUSTRALIA, PEOPLE IN THE OLD WORLD WERE CONVINCED THAT ALL SWANS WERE WHITE, AN UNASSAILABLE BELIEF AS IT SEEMED COMPLETELY CONFIRMED BY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE. THE SIGHTING OF THE FIRST BLACK SWAN MIGHT HAVE BEEN AN INTERESTING SURPRISE FOR A FEW ORNITHOLOGISTS (AND OTHERS EXTREMELY CONCERNED WITH THE COLORING OF BIRDS), BUT THAT IS NOT WHERE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STORY LIES. IT ILLUSTRATES A SEVERE LIMITATION TO OUR LEARNING FROM OBSERVATIONS OR EXPERIENCE AND THE FRAGILITY OF OUR KNOWLEDGE. ONE SINGLE OBSERVATION CAN INVALIDATE A GENERAL STATEMENT DERIVED FROM MILLENNIA OF CONFIRMATORY SIGHTINGS OF MILLIONS OF WHITE SWANS. ALL YOU NEED IS ONE SINGLE (AND, I AM TOLD, QUITE UGLY) BLACK BIRD."

- NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB

Запоминаем:

massive impact - массовое воздействие

to concoct - придумывать

grace - изящество

set the bar (high/low) - установить планку (высоко/низко)

to loath - ненавидеть

magnitude of skill - величина умения

aspiration - стремление

flawlessly - чисто, безотказно

the black swan theory - теория черного лебедя (теория, рассматривающая труднопрогнозируемые и редкие события, которые имеют значительные последствия)

9/11 - террористические акты 11 сентября 2001 года, совершенные в США